8900 RANDOMIZE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
9000 REM *****EXDRSK*****BUSINESS PROGRAM
9002 REM EXDRSK**********VERSION #1 (7/31/69)****EXTENDED RISK ANALYSIS
9004 PRINT "*  EXTENDED RISK ANALYSIS  *"
9006 PRINT
9008 DIM A(6,15),F(15),G(6,15),J(6,15)
9010 DIM B(8,12),C(6,15),U(8),V(8)
9012 DIM P(15),Q(15)
9014 A5=0
9016 V(5)=0
9018 R1=0
9020 R2=0
9022 R3=0
9024 R4=0
9026 R5=0
9028 R6=0
9030 R7=0
9032 R8=0
9034 R9=0
9036 R0=0
9038 L0=20
9040 W=.45
9042 S2=0
9044 X1=-5
9046 FOR I=1 TO 15
9048 IF I>6 THEN 9056
9050 FOR O=1 TO 15
9052 A(I,O)=0
9054 NEXT O
9056 P(I)=0
9058 Q(I)=0
9060 NEXT I
9062 IF A5>0 THEN 9192
9064 A1=1
9066 PRINT
9068 PRINT
9070 PRINT "DEFINITION OF FACTORS"
9072 PRINT
9074 PRINT "  NUMBER         FACTOR"
9076 PRINT "    1       INVESTMENT"
9078 PRINT "    2       MARKET SIZE (UNITS)"
9080 PRINT "    3       SELLING PRICE PER UNIT"
9082 PRINT "    4       SHARE OF MARKET"
9084 PRINT "    5       VARIABLE COST ($/UNIT)"
9086 PRINT "    6       FIXED COST (&/PERIOD)"
9088 PRINT "    7       USEFUL LIFE (PERIODS)"
9090 PRINT "    8       RESIDUAL VALUE"
9092 PRINT
9094 PRINT
9096 MAT G=ZER
9098 MAT J=ZER
9100 PRINT
9102 PRINT "IF PRICE, SALES AND OPERATING COSTS ARE INTERDEPENDENT"
9104 PRINT " TYPE 1; OTHERWISE, TYPE 0"
9106 INPUT L2
9108 PRINT
9110 PRINT "DO YOU NEED INPUT INSTRUCTIONS? (Y OR N)";
9112 INPUT Z$
9114 PRINT
9116 IF Z$="N" THEN 9136
9118 PRINT
9120 PRINT "FOR EACH FACTOR YOU WILL BE ASKEDD TO GIVE 3 ESTIMATES.  THE FIRST"
9122 PRINT "IS THE VALUE WHICH YOU THINK THE FACTOR HAS ONLY ONE CHANCE IN TEN OF"
9124 PRINT "FALLING BELOW -- THAT IS, A LOW GUESS.  THE SECOND ESTIMATE SHOULD BE"
9126 PRINT "THAT WHICH YOU BELIEVE TO BE THE MOST LIKELY.  THE THIRD IS THAT"
9128 PRINT "WHICH YOU FIGURE THE FACTOR HAS ONLY ONE CHANCE IN TEN OF EXCEEDING."
9130 PRINT
9132 PRINT"THUS THE ESTIMATES SHOULD BE TYPED:  'LOW, MOSTLIKELY, HIGH'"
9134 PRINT
9136 PRINT
9138 PRINT "ENTER ESTIMATES FOR:"
9140 FOR I=1 TO 6
9142 PRINT "* FACTOR";I;":"
9144 FOR K=1 TO 4
9146 O=2*K-1
9148 H=3*K
9150 PRINT "    PERIOD ";O;
9152 INPUT B(I,H-2),B(I,H-1),B(I,H)
9154 G(I,O)=(B(I,H)-B(I,H-2))/2.56
9156 J(I,O)=(B(I,H-2)+B(I,H-1)+B(I,H))/3
9158 IF I=1 THEN 9166
9160 IF K=1 THEN 9166
9162 G(I,O-1)=(G(I,O-2)+G(I,O))/2
9164 J(I,O-1)=(J(I,O-2)+J(I,O))/2
9166 NEXT K
9168 NEXT I
9170 FOR I=7 TO 8
9172 PRINT
9174 PRINT "* FACTOR";I;":";
9176 INPUT B(I,1),B(I,2),B(I,3)
9178 U(I)=(B(I,3)-B(I,1))/2.56
9180 V(I)=(B(I,1)+B(I,2)+B(I,3))/3
9182 NEXT I
9184 PRINT
9186 PRINT "SIMULATION ITERATIONS FOLLOW.  AFTER EACH INTERNAL ITERATION"
9188 PRINT "A '-' WILL BE PRINTED.  USUALLY 20 ITERATIONS ARE NECESSARY."
9190 PRINT "PLEASE BE PATIENT!"
9192 B1=0
9194 FOR K=1 TO 20
9196 X=0
9198 FOR H=1 TO 6
9200 X=RND(X1)+X
9202 NEXT H
9204 X=X-3
9206 V(6)=INT(V(7)+U(7)*X+.5)
9208 IF V(6)<16 THEN 9212
9210 V(6)=15
9212 FOR I=1 TO V(6)
9214 FOR O=1 TO 6
9216 IF I <= 7 THEN 9222
9218 G(O,I)=G(P,I-1)
9220 J(O,I)=J(O,I-1)
9222 X=0
9224 FOR H=1 TO 6
9226 X=RND(X1)+X
9228 NEXT H
9230 X=X-3
9232 IF L2=0 THEN 9250
9234 IF O <> 3 THEN 9240
9236 Y=1-X
9238 GOTO 9250
9240 IF O <> 4 THEN 9250
9242 X=Y
9244 GOTO 9250
9246 IF O <> 5 THEN 9250
9248 X=1-Y
9250 C(O,I)=J(O,I)+X*G(O,I)
9252 NEXT O
9254 NEXT I
9256 FOR I=1 TO V(6)
9258 Q1=C(2,I)*C(4,I)
9260 S1=Q1*C(3,I)
9262 P(I)=S1-Q1*C(5,I)-C(6,I)-C(1,I)
9264 Q(I)=Q(I)+P(I)
9266 NEXT I
9268 X=0
9270 FOR I=1 TO 6
9272 X=RND(X1)+X
9274 NEXT I
9276 X=X-3
9278 P(V(6))=P(V(6))+(V(8)+U(8)*X)
9280 Q(V(6))=Q(V(6))+(V(8)+U(8)*X)
9282 GOSUB 9450
9284 IF R>W-.6 THEN 9290
9286 R1=R1+1
9288 GOTO 9340
9290 IF R>W-.55 THEN 9296
9292 R2=R2+1
9294 PRINT
9296 IF R>W-.5 THEN 9302
9298 R3=R3+1
9300 GOTO 9340
9302 IF R>W-.45 THEN 9308
9304 R4=R4+1
9306 GOTO 9340
9308 IF R>W-.4 THEN 9314
9310 R5=R5+1
9312 GOTO 9340
9314 IF R>W-.35 THEN 9320
9316 R6=R6+1
9318 GOTO 9340
9320 IF R>W-.3 THEN 9326
9322 R7=R7+1
9324 GOTO 9340
9326 IF R>W-.25 THEN 9332
9328 R8=R8+1
9330 GOTO 9340
9332 IF R>W-.2 THEN 9338
9334 R9=R9+1
9336 GOTO 9340
9338 R0=R0+1
9340 S2=S2+R
9342 V(5)=V(5)+V(6)
9344 PRINT "-";
9346 FOR I=1 TO 6
9348 FOR O=1 TO V(6)
9350 A(I,O)=A(I,O)+C(I,O)
9352 NEXT O
9354 NEXT I
9356 NEXT K
9358 Z=S2/L0
9360 PRINT
9362 PRINT "*********************************************************************"
9366 PRINT "  AVERAGE CASH FLOWS -- ";L0;"SIMULATIONS"
9368 V(5)=INT(V(5)/L0+.5)
9370 A8=0
9372 FOR I=1 TO V(5)
9374 Q(I)=Q(I)/L0
9376 A8=A8+Q(I)
9378 IF A8>0 THEN 9382
9380 I8=1
9382 PRINT "PERIOD";I;Q(I)
9384 NEXT I
9386 PRINT
9388 PRINT "EXPECTED PAYBACK PERIOD BETWEEN";I8;"AND";I8+1;"PERIODS."
9390 PRINT
9392 PRINT "EXPECTED RATE OF RETURN";Z
9396 PRINT "RATE OF RETURN","     ","PROBABILITY"
9398 PRINT
9400 PRINT W-.6,"          ",R1/L0
9402 PRINT W-.55,"          ",R2/L0
9404 PRINT W-.5,"          ",R3/L0
9406 PRINT W-.45,"          ",R4/L0
9408 PRINT W-.4,"          ",R5/L0
9410 PRINT W-.35,"          ",R6/L0
9412 PRINT W-.3,"          ",R7/L0
9414 PRINT W-.25,"          ",R8/L0
9416 PRINT W-.2,"          ",R9/L0
9418 PRINT W-.15,"          ",R0/L0
9420 PRINT
9422 PRINT "TYPE 1 IF YOU WANT AVERAGE VALUES PRINTED FOR FACTORS 1-6; OTHERWISE 0";
9424 INPUT X1
9426 IF X1  <> 1 THEN 9444
9428 PRINT
9430 PRINT "FACTOR","AVERAGE VALUE","PERIOD"
9432 FOR I=1 TO 6
9434 PRINT
9436 FOR O=1 TO V(5)
9438 PRINT I,A(I,O)/L0,O
9440 NEXT O
9442 NEXT I
9444 PRINT
9446 PRINT "*******************************************************************"
9448 GOTO 9999
9450 B8=0
9452 W1=0
9454 FOR H=1 TO 10
9456 Q8=.5^H
9458 B8=B8+Q8
9460 W1=W1+1
9462 IF W1<10 THEN 9466
9464 IF B8>2 THEN 9488
9466 E=0
9468 FOR F1=1 TO V(6)
9470 E=(P(F1)*(1/((1+B8)^(F1))))+E
9472 NEXT F1
9474 IF E>0 THEN 9458
9476 B8=B8-Q8
9478 NEXT H
9480 IF B8=0 THEN 9484
9482 GOTO 9488
9484 B8=-.8
9486 GOTO 9452
9488 R=B8
9490 RETURN
9560 W1=W1+1
9562 IF W1<10 THEN 9466
9564 IF B8>2 THEN 9488
9566 E=0
9999 END