9 S=0 10 REM GTHOR: SECURITIES ESP GROWTH 20 REM!D.NIEBUHR, OCT.,1969 30 REM -- SPONSOR: PROF. MCDONALD 50 DIM D(60) 60 DIM E(60) 70 PRINT 80 PRINT'DO YOU WANT INSTRUCTIONS'; 90 P9=.6 100 INPUT A$ 110 G3=.04 120 IF MID(A$,1,1)='N' THEN 300 130 PRINT 140!PRINT 150 PRINT'THIS PROGRAM FINDS THE NUMBER OF YEARS OF CONSTANT GROWTH' 160 PRINT'IN EARNINGS PERSHARE REQUIRED TO JUSTIFY THE CURRENT SHARE' 170 PRINT'PRICE. YOU MUST SPECIFY THE INITIAL GROWTH RATE IN EPS AND' 180 PRINT'THE NUMBER OF YEARS DURING WHICH THIS GROWTH RATE WILL' 190 PRINT'DECLINE TO ';100*G3;'PERCENT (OR ';G3;') PER YEAR.' 200 PRINT' IN ADDITION TO PROVIDING THE NUMBER OF YEARS OF CONSTANT' 210 PRINT'GROWTH REQUIRED AT THE RATE YOU SPECIFY, THE PROGRAM ALSO' 220 PRINT'PROVIDES THE PRESENT VALUES OF THE DIVIDENDS AND TERMINAL' 230 PRINT'SHARE PRICE FOR ONE LESS YEAR OF GROWTH. THIS ENABLES' 240 PRINT'YOU TO EXAMINE THE SENSITIVITY OF YOUR ASSUMPTIONS.' 250 PRINT' IN COMPUTING ANNUAL DIVIDENDS THE PROGRAM ASSUMES THAT' 260 PRINT'THE PAYOUT RATIO WILL REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT LEVEL FOR FIVE' 270 PRINT'YEARS AND THEN CHANGE GRADUALLY UNTIL IT REACHES ';P9 280 PRINT'IN THE YEAR WHEN ANNUAL GROWTH IN EPS DROPS TO ';100*G3;'PERCENT.' 290 PRINT 300 PRINT'IF YOU WANT TO USE A FINAL GROWTH RATE OTHER THAN';G3 310 PRINT' TYPE IF ,AS A DECIMAL);OTHERWISE TYPE';G3 320 PRINT'GROWTH RATE'; 330 INPUT G3 340 REM P=SHARE PRICE, D81)=CURRENT DIVIDEND, K=DISCOUNT RATE 350 REM G3=AD INFINITUM GROWTH RATE IN DPS 360 REM E(I)=EARNINGS PER SHARE IN YEAR I 370 PRINT 380 PRINT'WHAT IS THE CURRENT SHARE PRICE'; 381 INPUT P 385 PRINT'EARNINGS PER SHARE'; 386 INPUT E(1) 400 PRINT'INITIAL GROWTH RATE IN EPS (AS A DECIMAL)'; 410 INPUT G1 420 PRINT'NUMBER OF YEARS OF DECLINING GROWTH'; 430 INPUT N2 440 PRINT'THE DISCOUNT RATE (AS A DECIMAL)'; 450 INPUT K 460 PRINT'THE CURRENT PAYOUT RATIO (AS A DECIMAL)'; 470 INPUT P0 480 E(1)=E(1)*(1+G1) 490 D(1)=P0*E(1) 500 PRINT 510 PRINT'YOUR INPUT IMPLIES A FINAL P/E RATIO OF';P9/(K-G3) 520 PRINT' IF THIS IS NOT SATISFACTORY YOU MAY CHANGE IT BY TYPING' 530 PRINT' ANOTHER P/E RATIO: OTHERWISE TYPE 0. VALUE'; 540 INPUT I3 550 REM P0=CURRENT PAYOUT RATIO 560 REM Q0=ANNUAL CHANGE IN PAYPIT RATIO FROM YEAR 5 TO YEAR N 570 REM G1=GROWTH RATE IN EPS DURING CONSTANT GROWTH PERIOD 580 REM N2=NUMBER OF YEARS OF DECLINING GROWTH 590 IF K<=G3 THEN 1170 600 S0=E(1)*P9/(K-G3) 610 GOSUB 740 620 PRINT 630 PRINT 640 PRINT'PRICE OF';P;'ASSUMES';N1+1;'YEARS OF CONSTANT GROWTH IN EPS.' 650 PRINT' THE PRESENT VALUE (INTRINSIC VALUE) IS ';S 660 PRINT' INTRINSIC VALUE FOR N1=';N1;'IS ';S0 665 PRINT' SHARE PRICE IN';N;' YEARS= ';P2*(1+K)^N 670 PRINT 680 PRINT'DO YOU WANT TO RUN MORE DATA'; 690 INPUT A$ 700 PRINT 710 IF MID(A$,1,1)='Y' THEN 300 720 GOTO 1200 730 REM THIS SUBROUTINE COMPUTES N1, GIVEN N2 AND G1 740 FOR N1=1 TO 40 750 S0=S 760 PRINT'-'; 770 REM THIS ROUTINE COMPUTES DIVDS. TO YEAR N AND SHARE PRICE 780 REM AT YEAR N. 790 Q0=P9-P0 800 N=N1+N2 810 IF N<=5 THEN 830 820 Q0=(P9-P0)/(N-5) 830 P1=P0 840 IF N1=1 THEN 910 850 FOR I=2 TO N1 860 E(I)=E(I-1)*(1+G1) 870 D(I)=E(I)*P1 880 IF I<5 THEN 900 890 P1=P1+Q0 900 NEXT I 910 G2=G1 920 F2=(G1-G3)/(N2+1) 930 FOR I=N1+1 TO N 940 G2=G2-F2 950 E(I)=E(I-1)*(1+G2) 960 D(I)=E(I)*P1 970 IF I<5 THEN 990 980 P1=P1+Q0 990 NEXT I 1000 D(N)=P9*E(N) 1010 P2=D(N)/(K-G3) 1020 IF I3=0 THEN 1040 1030 P2=I3*E(N) 1040 P2=P2/(1+K)^N 1050 S=0 1060 REM THIS ROUTINE COMPUTES PRES. VALUE OF DIVD. AND TERM. SHARE 1070 REM PRICE. 1080 F3=1 1090 FOR I=1 TO N 1100 F3=F3/(1+K) 1110 S=S+D(I)*F3 1120 NEXT I 1130 S=S+P2 1140 IF P