10 X$=SYS(CHR$(7)):R$=LEFT(X$,7):L$=RIGHT(X$,8) 20 REM********************************************************** 30 REM CMOD2 CMOD2 CMOD2 CMOD2 CMOD2 CMOD2 CMOD2 40 REM********************************************************** 50 REM 60 REM THIS MODULE ASSISTS THE USER IN SPECIFYING A BETA DISTRIBUTION 70 REM AS A PRIOR DISTRIBUTION ON PI. 80 REM 90 REM IT IS ACCESSED BY: COMPONENT 1 100 REM 110 REM**************************************************** 120 DIM #1,A1(111),A2(111),A3(111) 130 OPEN R$ AS FILE 1 170A1(0)=2 180 S9=0 190 V7=0 195 V2=1 200 S8=0 210 GOSUB 5160 220 DIM S(4,5) 230 PRINT L$ 240 PRINT " PRIOR DISTRIBUTION - BETA-BINOMIAL MODEL" 250 PRINT 260 PRINT "THIS MODULE WILL ASSIST YOU IN FITTING A BETA DISTRIBUTION" 270 PRINT "TO YOUR PRIOR BELIEFS ABOUT PI. WE BEGIN BY ASKING YOU TO" 280 PRINT "SPECIFY THE 25TH, 50TH AND 75TH PERCENTILES OF YOUR PRIOR" 290 PRINT "DISTRIBUTION." 300 PRINT 310 PRINT "SPECIFY 25TH. YOUR BETTING ODDS ARE 3 TO 1 THAT PI IS" 320 PRINT "GREATER THAN THIS VALUE."; 330 GOSUB 9000 340 IF O1 <= 0 THEN 350 345 IF O1<.97 THEN 370 350 PRINT "REENTER. 25TH MUST BE GREATER THAN 0 AND LESS THAN .97." 360 GOTO 330 370 Q1=O1 390 PRINT 400 PRINT "SPECIFY 50TH. YOUR BETTING ODDS ARE EVEN THAT PI IS" 410 PRINT "GREATER THAN THIS VALUE."; 420 GOSUB 9000 430 IF O1>Q1 THEN 460 440 PRINT "REENTER. 50TH MUST BE GREATER THAN 25TH." 450 GOTO 420 460 IF O1 >= .03 THEN 470 462 PRINT "REENTER. 50TH MUST BE AT LEAST .03." 464 GOTO 420 470 IF O1 <= .97 THEN 480 472 PRINT "REENTER. 50TH MUST NOT BE GREATER THAN .97." 474 GOTO 420 480 Q2=O1 490 PRINT 500 PRINT "SPECIFY 75TH. YOUR BETTING ODDS ARE 1 TO 3 THAT PI IS" 510 PRINT "GREATER THAN THIS VALUE."; 520 GOSUB 9000 530 IF O1>Q2 THEN 560 540 PRINT "REENTER. 75TH MUST BE GREATER THAN 50TH AND LESS THAN 1." 550 GOTO 520 560 IF O1 >= 1 THEN 540 570 Q3=O1 580 REM***************************************************************** 590 REM 600 REM Q1 25TH PERCENTILE 610 REM Q2 50TH PERCENTILE 620 REM Q3 75TH PERCENTILE 630 PRINT 640 PRINT "POSSIBLE APPROXIMATE DISTRIBUTIONS ARE BEING COMPUTED." 650 X=SQR(Q2*(1-Q1))-SQR(Q1*(1-Q2)) 660 X=X*X 670 C=.114/X 680 X7=1/X 690 A=C*Q2+1/3 700 B=C*(1-Q2)+1/3 710 K5=1 720 GOSUB 1610 730 REM 740 REM CHECK TO SEE IT THE FIT IS RIGHT ON 750 REM 760 IF ABS((S(1,2)-Q1))<.01 THEN 780 770 GOTO 850 780 IF ABS((S(1,3)-Q2))<.01 THEN 800 790 GOTO 850 800 IF ABS((S(1,4)-Q3)) >= .01 THEN 850 810 GOTO 2510 820 REM 830 REM FIT IS NOT RIGHT ON SO PRINT 4 APPROXIMATIONS 840 REM 850 PRINT L$ 860 PRINT "HERE ARE SOME OF THE PERCENTILES OF FOUR BETA DISTRIBUTIONS" 870 PRINT "THAT HAVE BEEN FITTED TO YOUR PERCENTILE SPECIFICATIONS." 880 PRINT 890 PRINT " 10TH 25TH 50TH 75TH 90TH" 900 GOSUB 2480 910 X=SQR(Q2*(1-Q3))-SQR(Q3*(1-Q2)) 920 X=X*X 930 C=.114/X 940 A=C*Q2+1/3 950 B=C*(1-Q2)+1/3 960 K5=2 970 GOSUB 1610 980 C2=.057*(1/X+X7) 990 A=C2*Q2+1/3 1000 B=C2*(1-Q2)+1/3 1010 K5=3 1020 GOSUB 1610 1030 A=5*P(1,1)+3*P(2,1)+P(3,1) 1040 A=A/9 1050 B=5*P(1,2)+3*P(2,2)+P(3,2) 1060 B=B/9 1070 K5=4 1080 GOSUB 1610 1090 PRINT 1100 GOSUB 4390 1110 GOSUB 9000 1120 IF O1=0 THEN 1140 1130 GOTO 1450 1140 PRINT L$ 1150 PRINT "RESPECIFY PERCENTILES." 1160 PRINT 1170 GOTO 310 1180 GOSUB 9000 1190 IF O1>0 THEN 1220 1200 PRINT "REENTER. 25TH MUST BE GREATER THAN 0 AND LESS THAN 1." 1210 GOTO 1180 1220 IF O1 >= 1 THEN 1200 1230 Q1=O1 1240 PRINT "50TH"; 1250 GOSUB 9000 1260 IF O1>Q1 THEN 1290 1270 PRINT "REENTER. 50TH MUST BE GREATER THAN 25TH AND LESS THAN 1." 1280 GOTO 1250 1290 IF O1 >= 1 THEN 1270 1300 Q2=O1 1310 PRINT "75TH"; 1320 GOSUB 9000 1330 IF O1>Q2 THEN 1360 1340 PRINT "REENTER. 75TH MUST BE GREATER THAN 50TH AND LESS THAN 1." 1350 GOTO 1310 1360 IF O1 >= 1 THEN 1340 1370 Q3=O1 1380 GOTO 650 1390 REM************************************************************* 1400 REM 1410 REM USER DOES NOT WANT TO RESPECIFY PERCENTILES 1420 REM PICKS ONE OF FOUR APPROXIMATE DISTRIBUTIONS AS 1430 REM TENTATIVE FIT 1440 REM 1450 IF O1=1 THEN 1520 1460 IF O1=2 THEN 1520 1470 IF O1=3 THEN 1520 1480 IF O1=4 THEN 1520 1490 PRINT "REENTER. MUST BE 0 OR NUMBER OF A DISTRIBUTION." 1500 GOSUB 9000 1510 GOTO 1120 1520 K5=O1 1530 A=P(K5,1) 1540 B=P(K5,2) 1550 GOTO 3830 1560 REM********************************************************** 1570 REM 1580 REM IF EITHER PARAMETER IS NOT GREATER THAN 1.15 1590 REM ADJUSTMENTS ARE MADE TO BOTH SO THAT BOTH ARE 1600 REM 1610 IF A>B THEN 2180 1620 IF A>1.15 THEN 2230 1630 IF K5=4 THEN 1830 1640 IF K5=3 THEN 1750 1650 REM A IS LESS THAN 1.15 1660 REM 1670 REM SET A=1.15*(K5-1)*.4 AND LET Q2 BE AN ESTIMATE OF MEAN 1680 REM 1690 B=B*(1.15+(K5-1)*.4)/A 1700 A=1.15+(K5-1)*.4 1710 GOTO 2230 1720 REM 1730 REM SET A=1.15 AND LET Q2 BE ESTIMATE OF MODE 1740 REM 1750 B=.15/(Q2)+.85 1760 A=1.15 1770 GOTO 2230 1780 REM 1790 REM SET M0=A+B WHERE B IS ESTIMATED TWICE-ONCE ASSUMING 1800 REM Q2=MEAN AND AGAIN ASSUMING Q2=MODE KEEP UPPING M0 1810 REM UNTIL BOTH PARAMETERS ARE GREATER THAN 1.15 1820 REM 1830 A=1.15 1840 M0=A/Q2 1850 M0=.5*M0+.5*A/Q2+1 1860 B=M0-A 1870 IF B>1.15 THEN 2230 1880 A=A+.1 1890 GOTO 1840 1900 REM****************************************************** 1910 REM 1920 REM B IS LESS THAN 1.15 1930 REM 1940 IF K5=3 THEN 2050 1950 IF K5=4 THEN 2150 1960 REM 1970 REM SET B=1.15 AND LET Q2 BE ESTIMATE OF MEAN 1980 A=A*(1.15+(K5-1)*.4)/B 1990 B=1.15+(K5-1)*.4 2000 GOTO 2230 2010 REM 2020 REM SET M0=A+B WHERE IT IS ESTIMATED TWICE-ONCE UNDER 2030 REM ASSUMPTION Q2=MEAN AND AGAIN ASSUMING Q2=MODE AVERAGE 2040 REM 2050 B=1.15 2060 M0=B/(1-Q2) 2070 M0=.5*M0+.5*((2*Q2-B-1)/(Q2-1)) 2080 A=M0-B 2090 IF A>1.15 THEN 2230 2100 B=B+.1 2110 GOTO 2050 2120 REM 2130 REM SET B=1.15 AND LET Q2=MODE 2140 REM 2150 B=1.15 2160 A=(1-.85*Q2)/(1-Q2) 2170 GOTO 2230 2180 IF B<1.15 THEN 1940 2182 IF A+B<2000 THEN 2190 2184 A=Q2*2000 2186 B=2000-A 2190 REM ********************************************************* 2200 REM 2210 REM COMPUTE PERCENTILES 2220 REM 2230 P1=.1 2240 P(K5,1)=A 2250 P(K5,2)=B 2260 GOSUB 4120 2270 S(K5,1)=J2 2280 P1=.9 2290 GOSUB 4150 2300 S(K5,5)=J2 2310 P1=.75 2320 E1=S(K5,1) 2330 A7=.1 2340 GOSUB 4170 2350 S(K5,4)=J2 2360 P1=.25 2370 E1=S(K5,1) 2380 A7=.1 2390 GOSUB 4170 2400 S(K5,2)=J2 2410 P1=.5 2420 E2=S(K5,4) 2430 A8=.75 2440 GOSUB 4170 2450 S(K5,3)=J2 2460 IF S9=1 THEN 2540 2470 IF K5=1 THEN 2500 2480A$=" # .## .## .## .## .##" 2481 PRINT USING A$ ,K5,S(K5,1),S(K5,2),S(K5,3),S(K5,4),S(K5,5) 2500 RETURN 2510 PRINT L$ 2520 PRINT "HERE ARE SOME OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BETA" 2530 PRINT "DISTRIBUTION FITTED TO YOUR PERCENTILE SPECIFICATIONS." 2540 PRINT 2550 M=A+B 2560REM 2700 J5=.5 2710 J8=S(K5,4)/S(K5,2) 2720 GOSUB 7000 2730 IF V7=1 THEN 2760 2740A$=" HYPOTHETICAL SAMPLE SIZE (M)######.##" 2741 PRINT USING A$ ,A+B 2750 IF V7=0 THEN 2770 2760A$=" MODE .##" 2761 PRINT USING A$ ,(A-1)/(M-2) 2770A$=" 10TH PERCENTILE .##" 2771 PRINT USING A$ ,S(K5,1) 2780A$=" 25TH PERCENTILE .##" 2781 PRINT USING A$ ,S(K5,2) 2790A$=" 50TH (MEDIAN) .##" 2791 PRINT USING A$ ,S(K5,3) 2800A$=" 75TH PERCENTILE .##" 2801 PRINT USING A$ ,S(K5,4) 2810A$=" 90TH PERCENTILE .##" 2811 PRINT USING A$ ,S(K5,5) 2820 IF V7=1 THEN 2850 2830 IF J2<.99 THEN 2840 2835 J2=.99 2840 GOTO 2870 2850 J1=H(1) 2860 J2=H(2) 2870A$=" 50% HDR .## - .##" 2871 PRINT USING A$ ,J1,J2 2880 IF V7=1 THEN 2950 2890 H(1)=J1 2900 H(2)=J2 2910 J5=.75 2920 GOSUB 7000 2930 IF J2<.99 THEN 2940 2935 J2=.99 2940 GOTO 2970 2950 J1=H(3) 2960 J2=H(4) 2970A$=" 75% HDR .## - .##" 2971 PRINT USING A$ ,J1,J2 2980 IF V7=1 THEN 3050 2990 H(3)=J1 3000 H(4)=J2 3010 J5=.95 3020 GOSUB 7000 3030 IF J2<.99 THEN 3040 3035 J2=.99 3040 GOTO 3070 3050 J1=H(5) 3060 J2=H(6) 3070A$=" 95% HDR .## - .##" 3071 PRINT USING A$ ,J1,J2 3080 IF V7=1 THEN 3880 3090 H(5)=J1 3100 H(6)=J2 3110 IF S9=1 THEN 3175 3120 PRINT "IF YOU DO NOT FEEL THAT THE HYPOTHETICAL SAMPLE SIZE (M)" 3130 PRINT "REFLECTS YOUR PRIOR INFORMATION ABOUT PI YOU CAN SPECIFY A" 3140 PRINT "DIFFERENT VALUE FOR M. THIS WILL NOT AFFECT THE MEDIAN BUT" 3150 PRINT "WILL CHANGE THE HDRS AND OTHER PERCENTILES. A LARGER M WILL" 3160 PRINT "RESULT IN SHORTER INTERVALS, AND A SMALLER M IN LONGER ONES." 3170 PRINT 3175 IF V2=0 THEN 3300 3176 V2=0 3180 M2=3 3190 M7=3*S(K5,3)*M2*(M2-2)+M2 3200 M7=M7/(3*M2-4) 3210 IF M7<1.5 THEN 3230 3220 IF M2-M7>1.5 THEN 3250 3230 M2=M2+1 3240 GOTO 3190 3250 M7=INT(M2+1) 3260 IF M79999 THEN 3372 3350 IF O1 >= M7 THEN 3380 3360 PRINT "REENTER. INPUT MUST BE 0 OR AN ACCEPTABLE M VALUE." 3370 GOTO 3330 3372 PRINT "REENTER. M MUST NOT BE GREATER THAN 9999." 3373 GOTO 3330 3380 M=O1 3381 IF ABS(S(K5,3)*M-S(K5,3)*(M-2)-1)>.019 THEN 3390 3382 A=3*S(K5,3)*M*(M-2)+M 3383 A=A/(3*M-4) 3384 B=M-A 3385 S9=1 3386 GOTO 3750 3390 O1=S(K5,3) 3400 GOTO 3560 3410 PRINT 3420 IF S8=0 THEN 3440 3430 GOTO 3470 3440 PRINT "TO CHANGE THE CENTERING OF THE DISTRIBUTION, SPECIFY" 3450 S8=1 3460 PRINT "A DIFFERENT MEDIAN. THIS WILL NOT AFFECT THE VALUE OF M." 3470 REM 3480 PRINT "IF YOU WANT TO CHANGE MEDIAN TYPE NEW VALUE ELSE '0'."; 3490 GOSUB 9000 3500 IF O1=0 THEN 4040 3505 IF O1<.03 THEN 3520 3510 IF O1 <= .97 THEN 3540 3520 PRINT "REENTER. MEDIAN MUST BE AT LEAST .03 AND NOT MORE THAN .97." 3530 GOTO 3490 3540 V2=1 3542 IF O1<1 THEN 3560 3550 GOTO 3520 3560 L4=O1*M 3570 L3=O1*(M-2)+1 3575 IF L4>L3 THEN 3580 3576 A=L3 3577 L3=L4 3578 L4=A 3580 A=.5*(L3+L4) 3582 B=M-A 3585 GOTO 3630 3590 L4=A 3600 L3=A0 3605 GOTO 3630 3610 L4=A0 3620 L3=A 3624 A=.5*(L3+L4) 3630 S9=1 3640 P1=.5 3650 B=M-A 3660 GOSUB 4120 3670 IF ABS(J2-O1)<.004 THEN 3750 3680 IF J2>O1 THEN 3720 3690 L3=A 3700 A=.5*(L4+A) 3710 GOTO 3650 3720 L4=A 3730 A=.5*(L3+A) 3740 GOTO 3650 3750 IF A<1.1 THEN 3765 3760 IF B>1.1 THEN 3830 3765 PRINT L$ 3770 PRINT "THE MEDIAN YOU SPECIFIED IS NOT CONSISTENT WITH THE M VALUE" 3780 PRINT "YOU ARE USING. EXTREME VALUES (HIGH OR LOW) REQUIRE LARGER" 3790 PRINT "M VALUES. YOU SHOULD EITHER MODERATE YOUR MEDIAN ESTIMATE" 3800 PRINT "OR INCREASE THE M. WHEN YOU WANT TO CONTINUE TYPE '1'." 3810 GOSUB 9000 3811 V2=0 3820 GOTO 1530 3830 PRINT L$ 3840 PRINT "HERE ARE SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF THE BETA DISTRIBUTION YOU" 3850 PRINT "ARE NOW CONSIDERING." 3860 IF S9=0 THEN 2540 3870 GOTO 2230 3880 REM 3890 PRINT "THIS COMPLETES THE FITTING OF A PRIOR DISTRIBUTION ON PI." 3900 PRINT "IF YOU ARE NOT GOING DIRECTLY TO THE POSTERIOR ANALYSIS YOU" 3910 PRINT "SHOULD RECORD THE PARAMETERS." 3920 PRINT 3930 PRINT "IF YOU WANT TO GO TO THE POSTERIOR ANALYSIS TYPE '1'." 3940 PRINT "IF YOU DO NOT TYPE '0'."; 3950 GOSUB 9000 3960 IF O1=1 THEN 4020 3970 IF O1=0 THEN 4010 3980 PRINT 3990 PRINT "REENTER. INPUT MUST BE 0 OR 1." 4000 GOTO 3950 4010 CLOSE 1: CHAIN "RSTRT" 4020 A2(0)=A:A2(1)=B 4030 CLOSE 1: CHAIN "CMOD3" 4040 V7=1 4050 PRINT L$ 4060 PRINT "HERE ARE SOME OF THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE PRIOR" 4070 PRINT "DISTRIBUTION FITTED TO YOUR PRIOR BELIEFS ABOUT PI." 4080 PRINT 4090A$=" PARAMETER A ########.##" 4091 PRINT USING A$ ,A 4100A$=" PARAMETER B ########.##" 4101 PRINT USING A$ ,B 4110 GOTO 2560 4120 E1=0 4130 A7=0 4140 GOSUB 5220 4150 E2=1 4160 A8=.999999 4170 A6=P1 4180 S5=(A6-A7)/(A8-A7) 4190 IF S5<.85 THEN 4210 4200 S5=.85 4210 IF S5>.15 THEN 4230 4220 S5=.15 4230 J2=E1+S5*(E2-E1) 4240 J1=0 4250 GOSUB 5000 4255 IF ABS(E1-E2)<.0001 THEN 4360 4260 IF ABS(P-P1)<.005 THEN 4360 4270 IF J2>.99 THEN 4370 4280 IF P>P1 THEN 4320 4290 E1=J2 4300 A7=P 4310 GOTO 4180 4320 A8=P 4330 E2=J2 4340 GOTO 4180 4350 GOTO 4360 4360 IF J2<.99 THEN 4380 4370 J2=.99 4380 RETURN 4390 PRINT "COMPARE THE PERCENTILES OF THESE DISTRIBUTIONS AND DECIDE" 4400 PRINT "WHICH MOST CLOSELY CORRESPONDS TO YOUR PRIOR BELIEFS." 4410 PRINT "YOU CAN EITHER TENTATIVELY ACCEPT THIS DISTRIBUTION OR" 4420 PRINT "RESPECIFY THE PERCENTILES." 4430 PRINT 4440 PRINT "IF YOU WANT ONE OF THESE DISTRIBUTIONS TYPE ITS NUMBER." 4450 PRINT "IF YOU WANT TO RESPECIFY THE PERCENTILES TYPE '0'." 4460 RETURN 5000 REM *************************************************** 5005 REM BETA CDF ROUTINE 5010 REM INPUT A B J2 5015 REM OUTPUT P 5020 REM GOSUB'S TO BE CALLED PRIOR 5160 AND 5220 5025 DIM W(16),O(16) 5030 REM GOSUB 5340 DENSITY 5035 IF A+B>85 THEN 5280 5040 P=0 5045 C6=0 5050 IF A>1 THEN 5080 5055 C6=A 5060 C7=B 5065 A=C7 5070 B=C6 5075 J2=1-J2 5080 D0=(J2-J1)*.5 5085 D1=(J1+J2)*.5 5090 FOR I1=1 TO 16 5095 D9=D0*O(I1)+D1 5100 IF D9=0 THEN 5115 5105 IF D9=1 THEN 5115 5107 D9=LOG(D9)*(A-1)+LOG(1-D9)*(B-1) 5108 IF D9<-80 THEN 5115 5110 P=P+W(I1)*EXP(D9) 5115 NEXT I1 5120 P=P*F0 5125 P=P*D0 5130 IF C6=0 THEN 5155 5135 A=C6 5140 B=C7 5145 P=1-P 5150 J2=1-J2 5155 RETURN 5160 FOR I1=1 TO 16 5165 READ W(I1),O(I1) 5170 NEXT I1 5175 DATA 2.71525E-02,-.989401 5180 DATA 6.22535E-02,-.944575,9.51585E-02,-.865631 5185 DATA .124629,-.755404,.149596,-.617876 5190 DATA .169156,-.458017,.182603,-.281604,.189451,-9.50125E-02 5195 DATA .189451,9.50125E-02,.182603,.281604,.169156,.458017 5200 DATA .149596,.617876,.124629,.755404 5205 DATA 9.51585E-02,.865631,6.22535E-02,.944575,2.71525E-02 5210 DATA .989401 5215 RETURN 5220 G9=A+B 5225 GOSUB 5850 5230 F0=G0 5235 G9=A 5240 GOSUB 5850 5245 F0=F0-G0 5250 G9=B 5255 GOSUB 5850 5260 F0=F0-G0 5265 IF A+B>85 THEN 5275 5270 F0=EXP(F0) 5275 RETURN 5280 W1=(B*J2)^(1/3) 5285 W2=(A*(1-J2))^(1/3) 5290 GOSUB 5325 5295 I1=P 5300 W1=(B*J1)^(1/3) 5305 W2=(A*(1-J1))^(1/3) 5310 GOSUB 5325 5315 P=I1-P 5320 RETURN 5325 Y3=3*(W1*(1-1/9/B)-W2*(1-1/9/A))/SQR(W1*W1/B+W2*W2/A) 5330 GOSUB 8000 5335 RETURN 5340 REM 2/16/76 CHANGED TO ALL LOG 5345 D2=F0+(A-1)*LOG(J2)+(B-1)*LOG(1-J2) 5350 IF D2<-80 THEN 5370 5355 IF D2>85 THEN 5380 5360 D2=EXP(D2) 5365 RETURN 5370 D2=1.E-37 5375 RETURN 5380 D2=1.E+37 5385 RETURN 5390 REM 5395 REM END OF BETA CDF ROUTINE 5400 REM ******************************************************* 5850 REM **************************************************** 5852 REM LOG GAMMA ROUTINE 5853 REM INPUT G9 5854 REM OUTPUT G0 5860 G5=G9 5863 IF G9 <= 1.E+30 THEN 5872 5866 G0=1.E+38 5869 RETURN 5872 IF G9>1.E-09 THEN 5881 5875 G0=0 5878 RETURN 5881 IF G9<1.E+10 THEN 5890 5884 G0=G9*(LOG(G9)-1) 5887 RETURN 5890 G6=1 5893 IF 18.001 THEN 7042 7040 GOTO 7108 7042 IF P0>J5 THEN 7052 7044 J7=J8 7046 J8=J8*2 7048 P9=P0 7050 GOTO 7028 7052 J9=J7 7054 J0=J8 7056 J8=(J5-P9)/(P0-P9) 7058 IF J8>.15 THEN 7064 7060 J8=.15 7062 GOTO 7068 7064 IF J8<.85 THEN 7068 7066 J8=.85 7068 J8=J8*(J0-J9)+J9 7070 GOSUB 7096 7072 IF J8<-99 THEN 7080 7074 GOSUB 5000 7076 J3=P 7077 IF ABS(J1-J2)<.0001 THEN 7108 7078 IF ABS(J3-J5)>.001 THEN 7082 7080 GOTO 7108 7082 IF J3>J5 THEN 7090 7084 J9=J8 7086 P9=J3 7088 GOTO 7056 7090 J0=J8 7092 P0=J3 7094 GOTO 7056 7096 J1=(J8^J-1)/(J8^(J+1)-1) 7098 J2=J8*J1 7100 IF J2<1 THEN 7106 7102 J8=J8*.95 7104 GOTO 7100 7106 RETURN 7108 IF U0=0 THEN 7122 7110 J7=A 7112 A=B 7114 B=J7 7116 J7=J2 7118 J2=1-J1 7120 J1=1-J7 7122 RETURN 7124 REM END OF BETA HDR ROUTINE 7126 REM************************************************* 8000 REM ********************************************************** 8001 REM ROUTINE CALCULATES THE CDF FOR NORMAL DISTRIBUTION 8002 REM INPUT Y3 8003 REM OUTPUT P 8004 REM 8005 Y4=ABS(Y3) 8010 X1=X 8015 X=Y3 8020 T=1/(1+.231642*Y4) 8021 IF X*X/2<80 THEN 8025 8022 D=0 8023 GOTO 8030 8025 D=.398942*EXP(-X*X/2) 8030 C1=1.33027 8035 C2=1.82126 8040 C3=1.78148 8045 C4=.356564 8050 C5=.319382 8055 P=1-D*T*((((C1*T-C2)*T+C3)*T-C4)*T+C5) 8060 IF X >= 0 THEN 8070 8065 P=1-P 8070 X=X1 8075 RETURN 8076 REM 8077 REM END OF NORMAL CDF ROUTINE 8078 REM ********************************************************** 9000 REM--SUBROUTINE THAT DETERMINES IF RESTART HAS BEEN REQUESTED. 9005 INPUT O1 9015 IF O1=-9999 THEN 9025 9020 RETURN 9025 CLOSE 1: CHAIN "RSTRT" 9035 REM*************END ROUTINE 9999 END